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Energy at the Crossroads

Global Perspectives and Uncertainties

by Vaclav Smil

448 pages, MIT Press, November 2003, paperback

In Energy at the Crossroads Vaclav Smil considers how to reconcile the modern world’s unceasing demand for energy with the absolute necessity to preserve the integrity of the biosphere. The fundamental message of the book is that our dependence on fossil fuels must be reduced not because of any imminent resource shortages but because the widespread burning of oil, coal, and natural gas damages the biosphere and presents increasing economic and security problems caused by the world’s reliance on more expensive supplies and its dependence on Middle Eastern crude oil. Smil begins with an overview of the twentieth century’s long-term trends and achievements in energy production. He then discusses energy prices, the real cost of energy, and "energy linkages"—the effect energy issues have on the economy, on quality of life, on the environment, and in wartime. He discusses the pitfalls of forecasting, giving many examples of failed predictions and showing that unexpected events can disprove complex models. And he examines the pros and cons not only of fossil fuels but also of alternative fuels such as hydroenergy, biomass energy, wind power, and solar power. Finally, he considers the future, focusing on what really matters, what works, what is realistic, and which outcomes are most desirable

Praise for Energy at the Crossroads

"Vaclav Smil's work stands as a bright light in a sea of dim treatises on the subject of energy. His previous energy books are invaluable and insightful resources, filled with real facts and clear writing. Energy at the Crossroads continues and expands that tradition." --Mark P. Mills, Partner, Digital Power Capital

"Smil has the best macroscope of all current energy analysts." --Jesse H. Ausubel, Director, Program for the Human Environment, The Rockefeller University

Table of Contents of Energy at the Crossroads

1. Long-term Trends and Achievements
2. Energy Linkages
3. Against Forecasting
4. Fossil Fuel Futures
5. Nonfossil Energies
6. Possible Futures

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